Experts Predict Lower Mortgage Rates Ahead in 2025

Mortgage rates have started to fall, and for buyers in Miami and the Florida Keys, that’s welcome news. The big question now is—will the trend continue into 2026? Experts say yes, there’s room for rates to ease further, and one key indicator to watch is the 10-year Treasury yield.

For more than 50 years, mortgage rates have closely tracked the 10-year Treasury yield. When the yield drops, mortgage rates tend to follow. Recently, the yield has started to decline, and analysts expect it to continue moving lower in the coming months. At the same time, the “spread” between the two—essentially the gap reflecting market risk—is shrinking, another signal that rates could dip even more.

At the moment, the 10-year Treasury yield sits around 4.09%. Historically, when you add the average spread of about 1.76%, mortgage rates land near 5.85%. That pattern is considered normal and aligns with forecasts projecting gradual rate relief over the next year.